mikolas

German Publisher Drops 12000 PCs for Mac

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This looks quite interesting: Axel Springer is changing all of their active PCs with Macs. That means 12000 clients. Hopefully this is a sign of increasing corporate adoption of Macs. Since I switched about a year ago, I’ve had the most problem free period of my IT career. In addition to that, Mac OS X seems to be the best environment to work with when developing web applications, due to having BSD roots with human comprehensible user interface - best of both worlds.

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The Missing Google Bookmarks Plugin for Safari/WebKit on Mac OS

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If you, like me, use Google Bookmarks for centrally storing bookmarks and want to use Safari or WebKit for your daily browsing, the help can be found at MacThemes Forum. The Goggles plugin for SIMBL adds a new menu to Safari that allows you to use Google Bookmarks integrated to the browser. A real lifesaver, at least for me.

PS. I’d recommend using nightly builds of WebKit as they feature a new JavaScript execution core, making AJAX applications far more responsive than on any other browser.

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New Theory on Existence of the Universe - Is It All Just Math?

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Discover Magazine has an interesting article about new theory of the Universe by Swedish born cosmologist Max Tegmark. Tegmark argues that the Universe is actually made of mathematics! This might feel just a bit far fetched idea for anyone accustomed to the conventional physics. However, Tegmark presents an interesting philosophical case as much of theoretical physics already heavily revolves around math - string theory or membrane theory for example.

Everything we as humans are capable of observing can be broken down to algorithms. Classical physics present world as solid mathematical approximation when it comes to large bodies like planets or even everyday visible objects. Quantum mechanics have been successful on predicting physical phenomena even though even the idea of quantum started as an abstract mathematical model. The same pattern can be repeated over the course of science and nowadays theory usually far precedes actual physical proof, to a large extent due to complicated and resource heavy machinery needed to get to the fine enough resolution of measurement. Take the soon-to-be-started Large Hadron Collider for an example.

So, who knows? Maybe we are just pieces of information in a huge supercomputer that is the Universe. It’s as good theory as any and the mathematical model seems to be solid, built onto the principles of our best current accepted understanding.

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The Battle for Mobile Starts - for Real

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It’s now been about one year since the original iPhone came out, but it’s the new version of the phone where things really start getting interesting. First of all, Microsoft has been pushing hard to make progress with Windows Mobile with help from HTC and SonyEricsson with their forthcoming XPERIA. On the Google front, Android platform has been gaining some vocal support and finally Nokia has also been busy copying the touchscreen support for their S60 Touch platform. So, from consumer perspective things are looking far more interesting than for a long long time.

The difference with consumer handset market, when compared to the earlier situation, is that mobile phone has grown into something different than a simple phone with maybe a calendar or email. The phone now is a content distribution and services platform - effectively an iPod on steroids. This is why we’ve seen Apple and Google enter the market as well as Microsoft making a strong push with their mobile Windows Live. It’s all about advertising using location based services and mobile entertainment using Apple’s iTunes or Nokia’s new Ovi as the content distribution platform.

Then, there is the enterprise aspect. Nokia, Research In Motion and Microsoft have traditionally been strong in the enterprise arena, all providing different solutions for mobile workers and ICT departments alike. Now, with the new software release, also Apple will be entering the enterprise arena with their ActiveSync connectivity and VPN solutions from Cisco and, more importantly, CheckPoint. So far, there has not been announced plans for Google’s Android, but this propably will change if there is enough consumer pressure to do it.

So, why all the fuss? The mobile internet market is still small when compared to the whole Web 2.0 craze. However, this will change as the handsets are getting feature rich and have fast data connections available practically around the globe. This means that traditional desktop browser apps like search, instant messaging and social networking will begin a shift to mobile, in essence providing a new advertising channel - to the one who owns the mobile page impressions. Also, the new mobile terminals will start replacing MP3 players and PMPs as the portable entertainment platform, thus emphasising the importance of owning the distribution chain to the end consumer.

This is why I think the whole mobile industry will be going through a very interesting period in the coming 5 years. Although there are players with dominant market positions at the moment (especially RIM and Nokia), the whole market will be going through some serious value chain changes. This, I think, will actually change the game and it is really hard to tell who will be winning different parts of the market.

My prediction is that in the first round, Apple will pull it off in the content distribution with iTunes, Google will take the advertising share with help of iPhone and Android, and finally Nokia will take the enterprise market, with RIM and Microsoft as strong challengers. However, the second round is harder. It just might be that Apple can actually also penetrate the enterprise market after gaining the top of mind position in the consumer’s minds. It is the same model that will eventually also force Mac into enterprise, regardless of ICT department’s will. In the end, the consumers will be the ones making the rules and that is why competitors should fear Apple. Jobs & co. know what the consumers want.

UPDATE: Also TechCrunch writes on the subject.

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Excellent Series on Quantum Physics

Overcoming Bias, the blog from Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University, has an excellent series on one of my favourite subjects: quantum physics.

The main point of the series is making out a more comprehensible view on the subject, as quantum physics is usually regarded as extremely difficult. The point is, it is not difficult but is against common intuition as we as humans are prisoners of our limited senses.

The introduction also makes a good point on teaching physics: we should start from quantum physics instead of classical physics and thus progress from the real underlying theories to the generalizations. I think there is some truth to that as quantum theory is not hard, it just involves a different approach to physical systems.

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HP to Install Silverlight on Their Consumer PCs

Numerous different places have reported that Microsoft has struck a deal with HP to install Live as the default search engine for their consumer PC line. Also, as a side effect, Silverlight (and .Net) will make its way on these PCs. This seems to be a duplication of the strategy Microsoft used to use to cut Netscape out of their air supply in the nineties, with famous consequences.

While I have nothing against the technology itself, I think this kind of tactics undervalue the consumers freedom to choose what to have in their machines without their consent, and thus bring up some very interesting issues involving HP’s and Microsoft’s liability, should any security issues arise because of this practise.

Other than that, I really think this will not change the bigger picture that much. 4 million shipped PCs is a fraction of Google user base or Flash installed base. So it leaves me wondering, why to make such a deal given all the history Microsoft has of such arrangements. Seems to me like playing with fire.

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Is the Electronic Book Approaching the Tipping Point?

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The New York Times writes about reaction on electronic books at BookExpo America. I’ve been using my Sony PRS-505 for a few months now and I can see why some publishers, and especially booksellers are getting worried. The value chain of book publishing is hopefully starting to change, thanks to companies like Sony and Amazon with their Kindle.

The only problem I see, at least for now, is the availability of books for electronic reading devices. The situation is pretty much the same as it was when first MP3 players started to emerge in the mid-nineties: the technology was getting (barely) usable, but the content owners were not prepared or were unwilling to change their existing business model. Then the record companies started to offer digital content, but each with a different DRM or format and/or proprietary, usually substandard software. This lead to mass piracy of content as the consumers already had identified the significance of the technology and made up their mind on the preferred standard.

So, back to my original reason for noting the NYT article. I was one of the early adopters of MP3 technology since I have an eclectic taste in music and tended to carry around at least 10-20 CDs plus a portable player all the time. Since technological progress gave a possibility to carry around more music without having to carry around extra weight, it was pretty simple decision to start ripping my music collection into compressed format as the source was already digital.

I’ve seen a similar trend with the Sony Reader: I carry around about 40 different books in the Reader all the time, since I normally read 3-5 books at the same time. The only annoying thing is the (non)availability of digital downloads, apart from vast amount of pirated (sounds familiar?) ebooks that are floating around. The difference with music, of course, is that ripping books into digital format is not as easy so piracy is left as the only option for getting more content in digital format.

This is really annoying, since I normally spend around 100 euros a month for digital music. I could easily imagine spending as much money on books, if there was availability. So my plea for the book publishers is: do not make the same mistake as the record industry did. Embrace the technology, get your act together on formats and DRM and most importantly: offer more and more content. The printing process is already fully digital, there is no excuse for not allowing digital distribution. If you don’t do it, the pirates and some clever business people will do it for you. Which way would you like it?

PS. The irony for me in this headline is that the first digital book I read was The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell.

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The Innovation Challenge

Scott Berkun has an interesting essay, on how to innovate, that makes a lot of sense. Innovations and innovation culture has always been of great interest for me, mainly because I’ve been working on product and business development for quite some time now.

The biggest challenge is not innovation itself, but the management of the innovation process. Bear in mind that innovation process does not operate in vacuum - it must be connected to the business strategy and such be executed using same measures as the business strategy as a whole. As dull as it seems, one should be able to manage and communicate innovation process using BSC or strategy maps, just like any other business process.

If innovation should be so simple, then why the innovation process is so often seen as a failure or something extremely hard? First of all, innovation is too often seen as radical innovation. Radical innovation is hard, by definition, and that is why it happens so rarely. As I listed before, innovation process should be something that can be executed and measured as part of the business strategy - radical innovation rarely comes out of this as the focus normally is (maybe too much) on the present business and such in the present business value chain as it is.

Secondly, as radical innovation is hard it is too easy to fall into the incremental innovation trap. Usually this means lowering the expectations and calling any normal incremental product or process enhancement as innovation. After all, you just saved a few euro cents per transaction! Enhancing the product or process is not innovation - it is keeping the service competitive and up to date in order to keep up with the competition.

Thirdly, innovations may happen, be successful and really take the company apart from the competition. But can you keep up with the situation? The answer many times is no, since copying innovations is easy as the technological barriers are constantly eroding. This indicates a problem in the process, or lack thereof: getting it right once is luck, getting it right constantly is a working, executed, process.

Although it is easy to point out the usual problems in the innovation process, it is really, really, hard to manage the process successfully as it requires solid strategy, solid execution and solid measurability. Otherwise the process will fail, no matter how good it is.

A funnier writing on the subject can be found from the Secret Diary of Steve Jobs. It may be a parody, but it hits the the nail on many issues. What would Apple be without focused strategy and constant product innovation with a visionary dictator executing the business? Just another Dell.

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Print Media Sales Revisited - The New York Times Company

The New York Times Company reported their Q1 earnings and the situation seems to be, with one word, abysmal. Not only did the print advertising sales free fall compared to Q1 2007, but also online advertising only grew in mid-teens, 16% to be exact, with 11% y/y growth for all the online operations. Even more alarming, the slowly growing online revenue totaled 11.1% of the total revenue against 9.5% a year earlier so it seems to be a double jeopardy: slowly growing online having more impact on the bottom line and negative growth in the print advertising. This is not good for the company and I think at least some analysts agree.

It is too early to jump into conclusions and blame the economy as online advertising, including online classifieds, is steadily growing despite the weak economy. My intuition tells that this is the real tipping point for advertising in general and online is really starting to eat revenue from domestic newspapers, and in NYT’s case also from regional publications. And the explanation is quite simple: online advertising reaches domestic audiences, yet is targetable by demographic and above all is still quite cost efficient. Mix in some CPC/CPA and the combination simply is quite attractive, compared with traditional print advertising. Times they are a changing.

EDIT: Google Q1 results seem to confirm my intuition. According to Silicon Alley Insider “…the company has not seen any macro-economic impact.” And the stock went up $75 in aftermarket trading.

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Thoughts on Local Startups

Loic Le Meur of Seesmic fame has some extremely interesting thoughts on locality and startups. Coming from Finland, that is a very closed market, I might counter some of his thinking. However, when taking a second thought about it, I seem to agree with his reasoning.

When you actually think about it, pretty much all global web startups originate from the U.S. and for a pretty good reason: Europe is both culturally and linguistically fragmented market whereas U.S. startups reach the whole English speaking population even if they are only targeted to the “local” audience. Take Finland: there are around 5 million Finnish speaking people that pretty much limits your options. Take Estonia, and the headcount is even smaller with around 1.3 million. Even if you manage to pull through an astounding innovation, you’re still limited to an audience too small to actually have any impact in the global scale of online business.

This means that you will almost certainly a) become an acquisition target for the multinationals or b) become obsolete when global players enter your business (this might include option a if you’re lucky) unless you go for the global or at least pan-European web audience from day one. Many of the European countries still have local and national players dominating the online marketplace. This is something I think will change over time, just like Google, eBay and Facebook have been gaining marketshare throughout Europe. In the online space, you need to operate globally and act locally.

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